jordan pulse -

By: Ahmad Abdelbaset Rjoub

Researcher and Strategic Planner

The Middle East constitutes a intricately interconnected geopolitical tapestry where religion, politics, and energy intertwine, making the adoption of a clear vision regarding the region's conflicts exceedingly complex. The unprecedented military escalation against Iran, with US-Israeli involvement, does not fall within the framework of a limited conflict but carries the potential for a dramatic transformation that could redraw the region's map for decades. Caught between the narrow calculations of leaders and devastating economic repercussions, the question remains: Where is this conflict heading? Could it be the spark for a third world war?

Gulf States: On the Front Line Between Threat and Destiny..

Gulf states find themselves in an extremely perilous position. Following Iranian attacks on oil tankers and commercial vessels in their territorial waters, Gulf security is directly threatened. Countries that bet on policies of de-escalation and positive neutrality now face a new reality: the targeting of their vital economic interests in their waters and the destabilization of energy supplies, the very backbone of their economies. This situation has prompted some to reassess their defense policies and seek more effective security guarantees, amid fears that their regional waters could become an open battlefield. Significantly, these developments coincided with a notable shift in the stance of some Gulf states, which have begun to realize that the policy of appeasement is futile against escalating Iranian behavior. However, options remain limited, caught between engaging in an open confrontation that could be devastating or seeking to form regional and international alliances capable of deterring threats and protecting vital interests.

Profit and Loss Calculations: Netanyahu and Trump Between Political Gain and Economic Reality..

In Israel, Netanyahu may see weakening Iran as a strategic gain that bolsters his domestic position. However, past experiences have shown that military superiority does not automatically translate into lasting political achievement. In contrast, Trump faces a more sensitive equation. The escalation coincides with domestic inflation and rising fuel prices. Any spike in oil prices could negatively impact the electoral mood, presenting the US administration with two choices: proceed with the escalation and bear its economic consequences, or seek a diplomatic exit that eases internal pressure.

Burning Oil: The Strait of Hormuz Under Siege..

Oil remains the most sensitive factor. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a fifth of the world's oil passes, would be a direct blow to the global economy. Gulf producer nations find themselves between the hammer of security threats and the anvil of export commitments. Any expansion in the scope of maritime targeting could turn the Gulf into an arena for global economic attrition, reminding the world of the fragility of supply security.

Foresighted Strategic Analysis: Conflict Scenarios..

As operations continue, three main scenarios emerge:

1.Managed Escalation: The continuation of limited strikes while avoiding a slide into all-out war, through international pressure to contain the confrontation. The crisis might end with unspoken understandings that restore mutual deterrence. This is the most likely scenario in the near term.

2.Uncontrolled Explosion: A miscalculation or a qualitative strike could expand the conflict to include regional parties. Targeting major energy facilities or military bases could ignite reactions that are difficult to contain, plunging the region into prolonged chaos and subjecting the global economy to a severe shock. This is the most dangerous scenario.

3.Regime Change Through Attrition: Some in the West bet on weakening or overthrowing the Iranian system from within. However, experiences suggest that regimes with deep security structures rarely collapse under external pressure alone. In fact, war might strengthen the hardline faction internally and push Iran to accelerate its nuclear program as a strategic deterrent option, opening the door to a dangerous arms race in the region.

The Major Players: China, Russia, and the Risk of Great Power Confrontation

The crisis cannot be understood without considering the positions of China and Russia. Both powers oppose large-scale military intervention and push for diplomatic containment that preserves the international balance of power. Moscow and Beijing view the escalation as a test of the multipolar international order. Despite the severity of the situation, neither power seems ready for direct military engagement, preferring to operate within the diplomatic and economic framework to prevent the crisis from turning into a confrontation between the major powers, which could have catastrophic global repercussions

Conclusion: A Historic Crossroads

The Middle East stands today on the brink of a profound strategic transformation. Either international efforts succeed in containing the escalation and channeling it towards a political settlement, or the region slides into a broader conflict that reshapes spheres of influence and shakes the global economy for years. What is happening is not merely a transient military confrontation but a test of the international system's ability to manage crises in an era where energy, security, politics, and economy are inextricably linked. The outcome will not only determine the future of Iran but could also shape the features of the Middle East and the world for decades to come.

Researcher and Strategic Planner