jordan pulse -

A critical question has been circulating recently about the extent to which the results of the 20th House of Representatives election will impact the formation of the new Senate. Several detailed questions arose after this, such as: Will the Senate have a partisan composition similar to that of the House of Representatives (104 party-affiliated members so far)? Will the Islamic Action Front Party be represented in the Senate? Will political parties that succeeded in the parliamentary elections be represented in the Senate at the same proportion as in the House of Representatives? Will some political parties that failed in the parliamentary elections be represented in the Senate? All these questions remain unanswered, as only the political decision-makers of the state hold the answers.

In Jordan, we operate under a bicameral system, consisting of the Parliament and the Senate. Politically, the purpose of adopting this system is to a balance in society based on the results of the elections for the first chamber, which is the House of Representatives. Given the political composition that succeeded in the House of Representatives (a majority from the political centre, a minority from centre-right, a significant number from the religious right, and a good presence of centre-left), the question is: will this same composition be replicated in the Senate? Furthermore, what about the representation of the left, which failed in the parliamentary elections, whether from the old or new leftist parties? Will they be represented in the Senate? On this point, some believe that parties which failed in the parliamentary elections should not be represented in the Senate, while others suggest they might be represented based on their individual qualifications rather than party affiliation, with the aim of ensuring representation for all political elements within the National Assembly.

The 2022 amendments to the Jordanian Constitution defined the powers of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. What concerns us here are the constitutional articles related to the Senate, which align with the topic of this article. According to articles (63-66), the maximum number of Senate members is 69, and their qualifications include former prime ministers, ministers, speakers of the House, deputies serving multiple terms, judges, senior officers, and others who have provided notable service to the country. Additionally, the Senate term is four years, with the president serving a two-year term, which can be renewed. Regarding the relationship with the government and the House of Representatives, the Constitution stipulates that Senate sessions are held only if the House is in session. Furthermore, it is prohibited to hold membership in the Senate concurrently with a position in the government or the House of Representatives, as per article (76). The Senate holds a position of advantage over the House in certain constitutional aspects: it is not dissolved if the House is dissolved, and the Senate president chairs joint sessions of the two chambers, according to article (89). Additionally, the vehicle plates of Senate members are marked with the number 2, while those of the House members bear the number 3. The one area where the House holds superiority over the Senate is in granting or withholding confidence in the government, which is an exclusive power of the House, though both chambers share equal roles in legislative and oversight functions.

Returning to the expected political composition of the Senate, starting with the Islamists, the question is whether the representation of Islamists in the Senate will correlate with their representation in the House of Representatives. It is worth noting that in previous cycles, dating back to 1989, the proportion of Islamists in the Senate has been negligible compared to the House. Two notable exceptions are the appointment of the late Dr. Abdul Latif Arabiyat to the Senate in 1993, despite his loss in the parliamentary elections, and the appointment of Abdul Majid Dunaibat to the Senate in 2007, after the Muslim Brotherhood's representation in the House was reduced to six deputies. Today, it is expected that the representation of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Senate will remain minimal, although circumstances might call for the presence of some Islamic Action Front deputies in the Senate. Regarding the political centre, this has historically been the most represented bloc in the Senate, and it is expected that they will form the largest group in the new Senate, particularly among former prime ministers, former ministers, and tribal leaders, mirroring their representation in the House. As for the centre-left, this is a relatively new trend in Senate composition but is expected to have a presence proportional to its representation in the House. Finally, the new leftist bloc, which was represented by a number of individuals in the last two Senate cycles (2020 and 2022) but failed in the parliamentary elections, may see representation in the Senate based on their personal qualifications rather than party affiliation for specific political purposes. The old leftist bloc, however, has not been represented in recent Senate sessions and, having failed in the parliamentary elections, is unlikely to be represented in the new Senate.

In conclusion, as the partisan landscape continues to develop, political parties may or may not be present in the Senate's formation. If parties are represented, the Senate's political composition will likely consist of three blocs: the political centre, centre-left, and, to a lesser extent, the left, with the religious right absent from the Senate. This would be the opposite of the political reality in the House of Representatives, which is dominated by three blocs: the religious right, the political centre, and the centre-left. Ultimately, when the new Senate formation is announced in the coming days, the picture will become clearer, and all speculation will end.