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Reports of a potential full-scale military conflict between Iran and Israel are increasing, but from a geostrategic and geopolitical perspective, such a war seems highly improbable. The current power dynamics in the Middle East reveal overlapping strategic interests between the two nations, complicating the likelihood of an all-out war.

Historically, both the Iranian and Israeli militaries were forged through existential conflicts. Today, both seek strategic deterrence through asymmetric and limited confrontations rather than full-scale wars. Geopolitically, a war could reshape the region’s balance of deterrence, especially with the potential involvement of international powers like the United States and its allies. As a result, both sides, particularly Iran in practice if not in theory, are likely to avoid any unintended consequences.

Geographically, the distance between the two countries and their relatively balanced military capabilities are major obstacles to a large-scale armed conflict. Despite their military strength, neither country’s military doctrine is based on the premise of direct war. Israel’s army focuses on defending territories it occupied from Arab nations, while Iran is more concerned with protecting its political system. Iran’s political establishment has created a Revolutionary Guard to safeguard the regime, rather than a conventional military focused solely on national defense.

Politically, Iran aims to preserve the gains it has made over the past two decades, with its influence now extending to four Arab capitals—Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sanaa. This makes Iran a significant regional power on the international stage. The Iranian leadership is unlikely to risk these achievements through direct military confrontation with Israel or the international powers backing it, as such a conflict could pose an existential threat to its regime. Israel, on the other hand, seeks to maintain its deterrence strategy with Iran, ensuring its superior position. This deterrence allows Israel to neutralize, and potentially align, Arab nations who fear Iran’s expansionist ambitions in the region.

Arab states face a difficult and complex position in this conflict, with diverse and often contradictory strategies. Some oppose Iran’s influence, viewing it as a regional security threat, while others seek dialogue and cooperation to address common challenges. There is also growing concern about the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, leading some Arab countries—unable to match Iran militarily—to strengthen ties with Israel as a countermeasure. Overall, the delicate balance between cooperation and rivalry will continue to define Arab policies toward the Iran-Israel conflict.

In conclusion, a direct war between Iran and Israel appears unlikely under the current circumstances, as both sides strive to maintain their gains without escalating into a full-blown conflict. The ongoing proxy war reflects their mutual desire to avoid repercussions that could lead to a fundamental shift in the regional balance. With the complexity of the geopolitical landscape, their competition will likely take other forms that allow them to achieve their objectives without crossing red lines. Ultimately, dialogue and diplomacy between the two nations remain the most probable path to avoid an unintended confrontation.