jordan pulse -

By Dr. Laith Abdullah Al-Qahawi

The potential return of former US President Donald Trump to the political stage, along with the formation of a new administration team, signals specific directions in American foreign policy, particularly regarding the Middle East. His appointments of figures known for their hardline stances on Iran, Russia, and China, as well as strong support for Israel, hint at a phase that may be marked by escalation and increased tensions in the region.

During his first term, Trump took significant steps to bolster US-Israeli relations, including relocating the US Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. These moves represented a drastic shift in the US approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, solidifying unconditional support for Israeli policies and widening the rift between Israelis and Palestinians. If Trump regains the presidency, this support for Israel is expected to persist, particularly with appointments like Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel. Huckabee is known for his unwavering backing of Israel and his hardline positions on Palestinian issues.

The selection of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State further indicates that the next administration might adopt a stricter approach toward Iran. Rubio, known for his sharp criticism of Tehran and calls for stringent sanctions, aligns with National Security Advisor pick Mike Waltz, a vocal critic of Iranian policies and an advocate of using force to curb Iran’s regional influence. This suggests little interest in reviving the nuclear deal Trump scrapped during his first term. Instead, there may be increased economic and political pressure on Iran to limit its activities in countries like Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.

US policy toward the Palestinian issue appears straightforward and unwavering; with figures like Rubio and Huckabee in key roles, the next administration is likely to continue sidelining Palestinian demands while bolstering support for Israel amid ongoing settlement expansion. The administration might also pursue "economic peace" initiatives aimed at improving living conditions in Palestinian territories without offering meaningful political solutions. While such steps could aim to stabilize security, Palestinians may view them as attempts to impose a status quo, deepening the crisis and further obstructing international peace efforts.

Beyond the Middle East, Trump’s appointments signal a determined stance toward China and Russia. Waltz’s known adversarial views on Beijing and Moscow suggest future policies will focus on countering Chinese and Russian influence in the region. This could negatively impact sensitive areas like Syria, where Russian involvement is critical, or disrupt Iran’s growing ties with China. Such policies might escalate global competition in the region, particularly if Washington employs new tools to pressure states with deepening relations with China or Russia, complicating the regional landscape.

Regional reactions to Trump’s potential policies and appointments reflect concerns, particularly from countries like Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed hope for a more balanced US approach to Middle Eastern issues, though he acknowledged Trump’s rhetoric raises alarm. This points to potential tensions between the US and some of its traditional allies in the region, especially if Washington maintains its unilateral support for Israel while ignoring broader regional concerns. Such dynamics could influence alliances in the region, potentially fostering closer ties between countries like Turkey, Russia, and Iran in opposition to US policies.

Trump’s firm support for Israel could undermine international efforts to achieve a just resolution to the Palestinian issue, while his hardline stance on Iran might heighten Gulf tensions, possibly sparking an arms race and increased military spending in the region. At the same time, Washington’s focus on curbing Chinese and Russian influence could foster new alliances and reshape regional conflicts, plunging the Middle East into a complex phase of political and geopolitical transformations.

In summary, Trump’s return and the formation of his new team raise significant questions and concerns about the future of US policy in the Middle East. His administration is likely to lean less toward diplomatic solutions and more toward economic and military pressure, potentially exacerbating conflicts rather than easing them amidst a backof shifting alliances and regional disputes.