jordan pulse -
By Dr. Laith Abdullah Al-Qhaiwi
The Palestinian territories are witnessing a dangerous escalation in Israeli military operations, marked by catastrophic humanitarian conditions in Gaza and intensifying confrontations in the West Bank. This situation underscores the deep-rooted and complex nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, raising questions about the dynamics of the current escalation and its strategic implications for the region’s future.
In Gaza, which has endured a prolonged blockade, continuous Israeli military campaigns have led to the collapse of infrastructure. Airstrikes and artillery bombardments have caused significant civilian casualties, targeting residential areas, public facilities, and vital infrastructure. These actions are part of an Israeli strategy aimed at neutralising the military capabilities of Palestinian factions, particularly Hamas, and preventing rocket launches into Israeli cities. However, this approach has exacerbated Gaza's isolation and deepened the humanitarian crisis, sparking doubts about the long-term effectiveness of such strategies.
In the West Bank, the situation unfolds differently but is equally alarming. Increasing Israeli military raids in cities like Jenin and Nablus reflect a determination to dismantle any organised resistance. These operations, however, result in widespread destruction of Palestinian infrastructure and fuel public anger, perpetuating a cycle of tensions and confrontations. In East Jerusalem, the escalation of violations against Palestinians further heightens the sense of targeted aggression, complicating the already volatile situation.
Regional Implications:
The escalation carries significant regional ramifications. Neighbouring countries such as Egypt and Jordan are actively pushing for de-escalation but face substantial obstacles in achieving lasting calm due to the absence of a comprehensive international vision for resolving the conflict. Meanwhile, the ongoing tension opens the door to broader regional and international involvement, increasing the risk of the conflict expanding, especially given the sensitivities surrounding Al-Aqsa Mosque and fears of a wider religious confrontation.
Global Response:
On the international stage, responses remain limited and disproportionate to the severity of the crisis. While the UN and humanitarian agencies warn of an imminent catastrophe, the lack of effective political will hampers efforts to halt the violence and address its root causes. Diverging global positions—ranging from staunch support for Israel as a strategic ally to condemnation of its actions—highlight the deep divisions in approaches to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Future Scenarios:
Four potential scenarios emerge:
1. Status Quo Continuation: The current situation persists, with cyclical violence and no political progress, prolonging Palestinian suffering and deepening regional instability.
2. Full-Scale Escalation: The conflict escalates into a broader confrontation, particularly if tensions in Jerusalem intensify or spill over to borders with Lebanon or Syria, posing significant risks to all stakeholders.
3. Long-Term Truce: Achieving a lasting calm through regional or international mediation, though this would require intensive diplomacy and security guarantees, leaving underlying issues unresolved.
4. Comprehensive Political Resolution: The most optimistic yet least likely scenario involves a two-state solution backed by international guarantees. This would necessitate overcoming political stagnation and rebuilding trust, a daunting task given current conditions.
Conclusion:
The ongoing escalation reflects the absence of a sustainable political solution, with the current crisis being the product of long-standing policies aimed at undermining prospects for peace. Without decisive international intervention and genuine political will from all parties, the cycle of violence and suffering is likely to persist. The region urgently needs a comprehensive strategic vision to achieve a just and lasting peace that restores rights to their rightful owners.
While shifts in international politics or regional dynamics may influence the conflict’s trajectory, the continuation of Israeli occupation practices ensures that Palestinian suffering will endure.