By Prof. Khalid Wasef Al-Wazni Professor of Economics and Public Policy Mohammed bin Rashid School of Government As 2026 begins, world moves closer to deep shifts set to reshape contours of new global economic order. By end of remaining five years of current decade, new economic poles emerge, driven by blocs, states, influence, interests, control. After years of monetary tightening, inflationary pressure, heavy fallout from Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical disruption, global economy—especially major economies—enters phase defined by competition over influence and control of resources, inputs, and energy of global system. Two parallel tracks dominate scene. First, repositioning of monetary policy with gradual interest-rate cuts in advanced economies, signalling defence of dollar and main currencies under its dominance. Second, rise of digital, mineral, and bloc-based alternatives. With new year, strategic economic resources gain prominence, led by metallic and non-metallic minerals, precious and traditional alike, as core determinants of growth and economic power. Global indicators suggest 2026 marks transition from restrictive policies to risk-oriented policies—aimed more at avoiding risk than merely managing it. Advanced economies, led by United States and Europe, face slowdown risks from high debt, rising financing costs, and weakening purchasing power. At same time, emerging economies—especially China, India, BRICS, and ASEAN—enjoy real opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global supply chains and declining absolute dependence on traditional markets. US policies open space to move beyond conventional markets towards Asia, Africa, Middle East, and parts of Europe, particularly Balkans. Reality shows growth no longer tied mainly to monetary policy, Federal Reserve meetings, or trade-barrier responses, but to ability to redirect investment and build financial settlement systems that widening gap with dollar-led system. Investment trends now favour high-value sectors, notably rich minerals, renewable energy, advanced technologies, and green-economy industries. Most striking feature of next phase is strong qualitative return of strategic minerals as decisive component of new global economy. Gold regains role as safe haven after nearly a century, amid uncertainty. Lithium, nickel, and cobalt gain importance as key inputs for clean-energy transition and electric transport. Competition no longer limited to oil and gas, but extends to control of mineral supply chains and reserves, making them central drivers of geo-economic rivalry for rest of decade. States richest in minerals, or those expanding overseas investment in them, hold keys to new global order. For Arab region, coming phase offers real opportunities if seized. Region holds natural resources, logistical capacity, and demographic potential to become regional hub for new value chains. This requires serious investment in human capital, comprehensive review of legislation and bureaucracy, and strong enhancement of business environment. Each state must identify its path across three contexts: human resources, regulation, bureaucracy and business climate. Global shift towards clean energy and strategic minerals opens door for region to reposition in global production chains—not only as raw-material suppliers, but as active participants in manufacturing and technology. In sum, 2026 signals non-traditional year for global economy. It tests states’ ability to adapt to VUCA world—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity. Wealth no longer measured solely by output size, but by capacity to read transformations and navigate them through investment and attraction. Minerals, energy, water, and human capital are keys to new global order. Those who deploy and invest in them today will soon lead economy.
By Prof. Khalid Wasef Al-Wazni Professor of Economics and Public Policy Mohammed bin Rashid School of Government As 2026 begins, world moves closer to deep shifts set to reshape contours of new global economic order. By end of remaining five years of current decade, new economic poles emerge, driven by blocs, states, influence, interests, control. After years of monetary tightening, inflationary pressure, heavy fallout from Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical disruption, global economy—especially major economies—enters phase defined by competition over influence and control of resources, inputs, and energy of global system. Two parallel tracks dominate scene. First, repositioning of monetary policy with gradual interest-rate cuts in advanced economies, signalling defence of dollar and main currencies under its dominance. Second, rise of digital, mineral, and bloc-based alternatives. With new year, strategic economic resources gain prominence, led by metallic and non-metallic minerals, precious and traditional alike, as core determinants of growth and economic power. Global indicators suggest 2026 marks transition from restrictive policies to risk-oriented policies—aimed more at avoiding risk than merely managing it. Advanced economies, led by United States and Europe, face slowdown risks from high debt, rising financing costs, and weakening purchasing power. At same time, emerging economies—especially China, India, BRICS, and ASEAN—enjoy real opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global supply chains and declining absolute dependence on traditional markets. US policies open space to move beyond conventional markets towards Asia, Africa, Middle East, and parts of Europe, particularly Balkans. Reality shows growth no longer tied mainly to monetary policy, Federal Reserve meetings, or trade-barrier responses, but to ability to redirect investment and build financial settlement systems that widening gap with dollar-led system. Investment trends now favour high-value sectors, notably rich minerals, renewable energy, advanced technologies, and green-economy industries. Most striking feature of next phase is strong qualitative return of strategic minerals as decisive component of new global economy. Gold regains role as safe haven after nearly a century, amid uncertainty. Lithium, nickel, and cobalt gain importance as key inputs for clean-energy transition and electric transport. Competition no longer limited to oil and gas, but extends to control of mineral supply chains and reserves, making them central drivers of geo-economic rivalry for rest of decade. States richest in minerals, or those expanding overseas investment in them, hold keys to new global order. For Arab region, coming phase offers real opportunities if seized. Region holds natural resources, logistical capacity, and demographic potential to become regional hub for new value chains. This requires serious investment in human capital, comprehensive review of legislation and bureaucracy, and strong enhancement of business environment. Each state must identify its path across three contexts: human resources, regulation, bureaucracy and business climate. Global shift towards clean energy and strategic minerals opens door for region to reposition in global production chains—not only as raw-material suppliers, but as active participants in manufacturing and technology. In sum, 2026 signals non-traditional year for global economy. It tests states’ ability to adapt to VUCA world—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity. Wealth no longer measured solely by output size, but by capacity to read transformations and navigate them through investment and attraction. Minerals, energy, water, and human capital are keys to new global order. Those who deploy and invest in them today will soon lead economy.
By Prof. Khalid Wasef Al-Wazni Professor of Economics and Public Policy Mohammed bin Rashid School of Government As 2026 begins, world moves closer to deep shifts set to reshape contours of new global economic order. By end of remaining five years of current decade, new economic poles emerge, driven by blocs, states, influence, interests, control. After years of monetary tightening, inflationary pressure, heavy fallout from Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical disruption, global economy—especially major economies—enters phase defined by competition over influence and control of resources, inputs, and energy of global system. Two parallel tracks dominate scene. First, repositioning of monetary policy with gradual interest-rate cuts in advanced economies, signalling defence of dollar and main currencies under its dominance. Second, rise of digital, mineral, and bloc-based alternatives. With new year, strategic economic resources gain prominence, led by metallic and non-metallic minerals, precious and traditional alike, as core determinants of growth and economic power. Global indicators suggest 2026 marks transition from restrictive policies to risk-oriented policies—aimed more at avoiding risk than merely managing it. Advanced economies, led by United States and Europe, face slowdown risks from high debt, rising financing costs, and weakening purchasing power. At same time, emerging economies—especially China, India, BRICS, and ASEAN—enjoy real opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global supply chains and declining absolute dependence on traditional markets. US policies open space to move beyond conventional markets towards Asia, Africa, Middle East, and parts of Europe, particularly Balkans. Reality shows growth no longer tied mainly to monetary policy, Federal Reserve meetings, or trade-barrier responses, but to ability to redirect investment and build financial settlement systems that widening gap with dollar-led system. Investment trends now favour high-value sectors, notably rich minerals, renewable energy, advanced technologies, and green-economy industries. Most striking feature of next phase is strong qualitative return of strategic minerals as decisive component of new global economy. Gold regains role as safe haven after nearly a century, amid uncertainty. Lithium, nickel, and cobalt gain importance as key inputs for clean-energy transition and electric transport. Competition no longer limited to oil and gas, but extends to control of mineral supply chains and reserves, making them central drivers of geo-economic rivalry for rest of decade. States richest in minerals, or those expanding overseas investment in them, hold keys to new global order. For Arab region, coming phase offers real opportunities if seized. Region holds natural resources, logistical capacity, and demographic potential to become regional hub for new value chains. This requires serious investment in human capital, comprehensive review of legislation and bureaucracy, and strong enhancement of business environment. Each state must identify its path across three contexts: human resources, regulation, bureaucracy and business climate. Global shift towards clean energy and strategic minerals opens door for region to reposition in global production chains—not only as raw-material suppliers, but as active participants in manufacturing and technology. In sum, 2026 signals non-traditional year for global economy. It tests states’ ability to adapt to VUCA world—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity. Wealth no longer measured solely by output size, but by capacity to read transformations and navigate them through investment and attraction. Minerals, energy, water, and human capital are keys to new global order. Those who deploy and invest in them today will soon lead economy.
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Early signs of new year and emerging global order
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