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From Efficiency to Resilience: Why Economic Security Is the New Growth Paradigm

By Prof. Khalid Wassef Al-Wazani
Professor of Economics and Public Policy
Mohammed Bin Rashid School of Government
I am currently reading a translated work by renowned economist Jeffrey Sachs on “The ages of Globalization”, where he identifies seven distinct eras—from the Paleolithic age of water and grazing lands, to the Neolithic agricultural revolution, the equestrian age, the classical empires, the oceanic expansion, the industrial revolution led by Britain, and finally the digital age defined by data and information flows. Across these eras, three constants have shaped economic evolution: human agency, geography, and knowledge. Human needs and aspirations drove production; geography determined resource availability; and knowledge enabled the effective utilization of both. Together, these elements formed the foundation of what economists describe as efficiency—the optimal use of resources to maximize output and welfare.
For more than three decades, particularly in the modern digital era, efficiency has been the dominant paradigm in economic thinking. The assumption was straightforward: economic growth is best achieved by producing goods and services at the lowest possible cost, optimizing resource allocation, and distributing them through increasingly complex global supply chains. This logic gave rise to globalization as we know it today. Global value chains came to account for nearly 70% of global trade, according to World Bank estimates. Efficiency was not merely a goal—it became the defining metric of economic success.
Yet, the world is now confronting the hidden costs of this model. Over the past five years, a series of global shocks—the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and escalating geopolitical tensions—have exposed the fragility embedded within hyper-efficient systems. During the pandemic, global supply chains experienced unprecedented disruptions, resulting in losses measured in trillions of dollars and shipping costs rising by over 300% on some routes. Similarly, the Russia–Ukraine conflict revealed the dangers of concentrated dependencies. Together, the two countries accounted for nearly 30% of global wheat exports, triggering sharp price volatility and posing serious threats to global food security.
These events have catalyzed a profound shift: from an economy of efficiency maximization to an economy of risk management. Today, firms and governments are no longer solely searching for the lowest cost—they are prioritizing resilience, stability, and continuity. The central question has shifted from “How do we minimize cost?” to “How do we ensure continuity under uncertainty?” This transformation is reshaping global production and trade structures. Concepts such as near-shoring, friend-shoring, and reshoring are increasingly redefining the international division of labor. Production is being relocated closer to home or to politically aligned partners, even at higher costs, in exchange for greater security.
In essence, the emerging phase of globalization can be characterized by a single guiding principle: economic security first. Paradoxically, the global economy is moving toward sustainability and continuity without being fully governed by traditional efficiency metrics. In fact, what we once considered “efficient” is now being re-evaluated through a geopolitical lens. Unsafe efficiency is no longer efficiency.
In this context, the role of the state is making a strong comeback. After decades of market liberalization and private-sector dominance, governments are once again at the center of economic strategy. Industrial policies are resurging, strategic sectors are being supported, and public intervention is intensifying to secure energy, food, and technological sovereignty. The United States alone has committed over $400 billion to support green and advanced technology industries, while European economies are implementing similar programs to enhance strategic autonomy.
For the Arab region, this transformation presents both a significant opportunity and a critical challenge. On the opportunity side, the region holds substantial strategic advantages: a geographic position through which more than 20% of global energy trade passes, abundant energy resources, and growing logistical capabilities. These factors position Arab economies as potential key players in the emerging economic geography. However, the challenge remains fundamental: Can the region move from being a transit corridor to becoming an active partner in global value chains?
Answering this question requires a new economic vision—one that emphasizes diversification of partnerships, development of productive sectors, targeted investment in human capital, and the creation of institutional environments capable of attracting high-quality, long-term investment rather than short-term speculative flows.
In conclusion, what we are witnessing is not the end of globalization, nor the abandonment of efficiency as an economic objective. Rather, it is a redefinition of efficiency itself. The world is not rejecting efficiency—it is recalibrating it to balance cost with security, profit with stability, and returns with risk. In a VUCA world—characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—the new economic rule may be simpler than we think: It is not efficiency that drives growth, but secure efficiency that sustains it.

Prof. Khalid W. Al Wazani