jordan pulse -

By Ahmad Abdulbasit Al-Rajoub
​On April 21, 2026, I raised a crucial question regarding whether major Islamic nations—Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan—could bridge their differences to form a collective deterrence axis against regional threats. Only months later, a practical response materialized on August 7, 2026, with the signing of the "Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement" between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. The agreement embodied the core principle I had advocated: that an armed attack against any of the three states is considered an attack on them all. However, the most pressing question today remains why Egypt was absent from this alliance despite its essential presence in the original framework, and whether true deterrence has actually been born or if it is merely a reaction to the "New Middle East" vision presented by Benjamin Netanyahu.
​Prior to the diplomatic movement in Mecca, I highlighted a deep strategic gap in the Islamic world: the absence of collective deterrence. A real equation of deterrence requires the integration of four key pillars: Turkey’s industrial and technological power, Egypt’s traditional military backbone, Saudi Arabia’s economic strength, and Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent. The agreement signed in Mecca translated a significant portion of this vision into reality by bringing together three of these pillars. Nevertheless, the absence of Egypt leaves the alliance lacking the massive land, demographic, and strategic depth that Cairo provides, keeping the system incomplete.
​Historically, the "New Middle East" taking shape differs vastly from Netanyahu's vision of a Zionist-Arab coalition aimed at bypassing Palestine. Instead, the multi-front escalation has fostered the nucleus of a deterrence alliance in Mecca combining Turkish technology, Saudi wealth, and Pakistani nuclear capabilities. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump, who entered the conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026 expecting a swift outcome, now finds himself entangled in a protracted struggle where Iran maintains strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. In this context, the Mecca agreement signals that regional powers are taking steps to build their own security frameworks as trust in external guarantees erodes.
​When evaluating the capabilities of the newly formed tripartite alliance, a strong balance appears in asymmetric, economic, and nuclear deterrence. Turkish drone and cybersecurity capabilities paired with Saudi financial resources provide potent non-conventional leverage, while Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal creates an indispensable balance of terror. However, the lack of Egyptian participation creates a notable void in conventional land forces and control over vital maritime gateways such as the Suez Canal.
​Looking ahead, three potential scenarios emerge for the region. The primary scenario involves the future expansion of the alliance into a full quad by incorporating Egypt as regional escalations persist. The second scenario entails attempting to offset Egypt's absence through alternative partnerships with neighboring states like Jordan or other Gulf nations, though this would provide only partial strategic compensation. The third scenario is one of stagnation, where Egypt remains neutral, leaving the alliance's conventional deterrence capabilities limited. Ultimately, the agreement signed in Mecca represents a promising nucleus for regional balance, demonstrating that a new Middle East is being forged not by external hegemony, but by evolving dynamics of collective security.
​Source: Rum Online News Agency