jordan pulse -

​By Dr. Rashed Al-Shashani
​Why Did Egypt Not Participate in the Mecca Agreement?
​This central question serves as a starting point toward understanding the true intention behind this coalition. It seems futile to delve into the details of Egypt's relationship with the UAE on one hand, and the UAE's relationship with Saudi Arabia on the other, as the complexity extends beyond these boundaries—raising fears within Egypt of unforeseen outcomes.
​Our core conviction dictates that generosity in feeding a guest is matched by no equal generosity in handing over sovereignty. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who seeks to assert control over the region, found an important foothold in Syria. Regional nations will not allow him to proceed unchecked as he denounces Netanyahu while simultaneously exchanging subtle gestures with US President Donald Trump to maintain his momentum, fearing a collapse in his disputes with regional powers.
​In the same line of thinking, Iran prompts the Houthis to disrupt and stabilize conditions abruptly against Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom had barely announced the establishment of a maritime coalition before declaring the Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement, preceded by its accord with Pakistan. We previously described that accord as a buffer against Trump prior to his arrival—a description that applies equally to the Mecca Agreement. While many view this pact as directed against potential Iranian targeting of regional states, it coincides with Iran sending conciliatory signals toward Saudi Arabia and Turkey through Hezbollah and Syria.
​Turkey maintains viable relations with Iran and its regional proxies, enabling it to engage Trump, who uses a posture of inattention to reshuffle cards whenever he fails to overthrow the Iranian regime. Trump continues attempts to bring down the regime through third parties without relinquishing victory—a plan leaving him with few options beyond involving Syria and shifting factions in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
​This dynamic implies a setback for Erdoğan's ambitions, risking the costs incurred in supporting Syrian factions and the government while leveraging pressure differentials to complicate Trump's calculations regarding Kurdish forces. Furthermore, it risks Saudi Arabia's influence in Syria—an influence that plays a notable role in balancing Saudi-Iranian relations, where both sides seek de-escalation and reconciliation. However, with Iran targeting US bases whose defense would require this alliance to act as an auxiliary force guarding American interests, members would find themselves competing to satisfy Trump—an outcome unlikely to materialize.
​Under such a framework, which extends to the maritime alliance, the coalition risks functioning as an instrument in Trump's hands after positioning its members as direct adversaries to Iran. Alternatively, Iran could exploit these defense commitments to draw member states into concessions, leveraging the agreement to protect its regional interests and proxies.
​Consequently, the alliance risks remaining without practical utility beyond creating an impression for Trump that a regional force stands in the way of his intervention. Yet, Trump may escalate pressure, opening broader avenues for Iranian influence beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Trump will interpret this step as an invitation for these nations to reach understandings with Iran independently, bypassing his influence, neutralizing attempts to leverage Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and frustrating efforts to employ Pakistan as a maneuverable mediator. At that junction, the limitations of Pakistani mediation become clearer, while Turkish efforts falter in balancing influence in Lebanon, conditioning Saudi-Israeli relations on Turkish approval, and monopolizing dialogue with Iran amidst ongoing regional friction. All of this will navigate through the maneuvers of Trump and Netanyahu as events unfold.
​Ultimately, a Sunni alliance offering little beyond a superficial gathering will not intimidate Trump, nor will an Islamic coalition that might eventually include Iran. What remains a concern is Iran's capacity to maneuver within these expanding regional circumstances, which offer far greater scope than the Strait of Hormuz.
​Source: Rum Online News Agency