jordan pulse -

​By Dr. Rashid Al-Shashani
​The failure of an idea does not prevent it from exerting influence in one way or another.
​A unified Lebanon does not serve Israeli interests, nor does its division. The current state of chaos serves not only Israel's objective of managing the threat posed by Hezbollah, but also aligns with a period of watchful waiting by the United States. Washington seeks to leverage the ambiguity generated by reckless Israeli momentum—fueled by the shock of October and the defiance of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who seeks U.S. approval in his pursuit of a decisive outcome. Although U.S. President Donald Trump was previously frustrated by failed calculations and remains hesitant to grant a explicit green light for further strikes, he continues to turn a blind eye to Netanyahu's strategic moves.
​This cautious U.S. posture is illustrated by the meeting between Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which highlighted Salam's active role on the international stage. While coordinated through Lebanese diplomatic channels, this dynamic unfolds against the backof internal political rivalry between Prime Minister Salam and President Michel Aoun on one side, and the Lebanese Forces party on the other, as Salam seeks to position his government under American, Saudi, and Qatari favor to ensure its survival through President Aoun's term.
​However, Washington’s calculations are not driven by altruism. Trump will not engage with the Lebanese arena without securing a deal—whether political, by utilizing regional neighbors and confronting Iran and Turkey, or economic, by securing lucrative concessions for high-rise developments and resource-rich economic zones.
​Regarding internal political governance, proposals for federalism or autonomy—such as converting Lebanon into a decentralized entity similar to Iraqi Kurdistan—face significant hurdles. While Washington has historically stoked internal political rivalries, particularly within Christian factions, to maintain leverage and open side channels with Hezbollah and Iran, federalism remains inherently unsuitable for Lebanon's complex socio-political fabric.
​Meanwhile, Israel's core dilemma remains unresolved: its leadership lacks a clear strategy for the scenario following a potential collapse of Hezbollah. Eliminating Hezbollah alone will not neutralize security threats. Consequently, Israel seeks a manageable framework to handle Palestinian populations in Lebanon and mitigate risks associated with Syrian groups near its borders, rather than supporting a fully stable state or formal partition.
​Furthermore, the upcoming military-level negotiations between Lebanon and Israel in Tampa reflect an effort to isolate security arrangements from domestic political friction, allowing for technical flexibility. At the same time, European powers—led by France and UN Special Coordinator Jean Arnaud—seek to preserve political influence and avoid direct military confrontation with Hezbollah, fearing that Israeli demands to alter the UNIFIL mandate could destabilize the status quo.
​Source: Rum News Agency