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​AMMAN
​The fallout from the US midterm elections has exposed a severe political and strategic predicament facing outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Having staked his strategy on US President Donald Trump and the Republican Party to bolster his political leverage, Netanyahu now faces declining American backing and mounting international isolation.
​In an analysis published in Foreign Policy, Azriel Bermant—an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations Prague—argues that Netanyahu miscalculated his wager on Trump, as their close alignment has become a source of strategic risk threatening Israel's standing within the United States.
​Coinciding with the US midterm elections, President Trump sent shockwaves through Israel by announcing the termination of US military aid by the end of the year, claiming Netanyahu had agreed to the decision months earlier. While Netanyahu had previously spoken about gradually weaning Israel off US assistance over a decade, he had never announced an agreement for an immediate halt.
​Netanyahu swiftly faced domestic backlash. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak accused him of striking a dubious deal, potentially in exchange for Trump's endorsement during the Israeli elections. Meanwhile, Prime Minister-designate Gadi Eisenkot stated that revealing a strategic shift of this magnitude through the media reflects a dangerous dysfunction in managing US-Israeli relations.
​The War Shakes the Republican Coalition
​Bermant links the Republican defeat in the midterms directly to the consequences of the joint US-Israeli war on Iran, noting that the conflict, rising energy costs, and voter frustration over American support for Israel were primary factors driving the party's decline.
​In a notable remark, US Vice President JD Vance acknowledged that the war with Iran was a major cause of the electoral defeat, stating that voters want a shift in the relationship with Israel and an end to military confrontation. Trump did not dispute this assessment, pointing to widespread dissatisfaction toward Israel within American society.
​This leaves Netanyahu facing a complex equation: while he seeks to renew confrontation with Iran, the US administration is leaning toward using force primarily as leverage to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and press Tehran into concessions regarding its nuclear program.
​Netanyahu, Iran, and Calculations of Power
​The analysis suggests that Netanyahu leveraged the Iranian threat to fortify his political standing and deflect attention from his government's failures prior to and following the October 7, 2023 attack. Additionally, reports of Israeli intelligence claims regarding potential Iranian use of chemical weapons sparked skepticism among US officials, who feared the intelligence was being used to push Washington toward fresh military strikes.
​Bermant highlights a contradiction in Netanyahu's rhetoric: after previously declaring Iran's nuclear capabilities destroyed, he reverted to warning of an imminent existential threat. This escalation peaked when Netanyahu shared an AI-generated image of a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, warning that rejecting his leadership could lead to a historic catastrophe. This approach also strained relations with IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, who opposed orders risking a broad regional conflict.
​Israel’s Isolation and the Future Government
​Conversely, Eisenkot is attempting to form a new government following his official mandate, though a narrow victory margin and opposition reluctance to ally with Arab parties complicate the task. According to the analysis, targeting Arab lawmakers with security investigations further raises concerns over institutional independence and Israel's democratic trajectory.
​Bermant concludes that Netanyahu’s near-total reliance on the Republicans has eroded traditional bipartisan support for Israel in Washington. Democrats are shifting toward more critical stances, while anger within the Republican base continues to grow over the war and its economic toll.
​Source: Foreign Policy / Rum News Agency