jordan pulse -

​Yemen is heading toward a new cycle of escalation as the Houthis advance along the West Coast, reaching areas near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, in a development extending beyond internal confrontation due to the strategic importance of the maritime corridor and its ramifications for international navigation, trade, energy, and regional security.
​Yemeni government sources reported that the Houthis expanded their deployment from the city of Mocha toward Bab al-Mandab, while a government official stated that control has been completed over the strait area, Mayun (Perim) Island, as well as Greater and Lesser Hanish. Witnesses also reported the deployment of Houthi gunmen on the shores of Bab al-Mandab.
​This coincided with a sudden withdrawal of more than 30,000 fighters from the Joint Forces from positions along the West Coast, allowing the Houthis to advance across vast areas without major clashes.
​The withdrawal raised questions regarding its causes amid the absence of a comprehensive official explanation of what transpired.
​Bab al-Mandab: Importance Beyond Yemen
​The developments derive their significance from the location of Bab al-Mandab, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, serving as a primary corridor for trade flow and energy supplies between Asia and Europe.
​The proximity of fighting to the strait means that any disruption in the region may not remain confined within Yemen. Instead, it could impact vessel traffic, shipping and insurance costs, and supply chains—especially if coastal areas and nearby islands are converted into military positions used to threaten navigation.
​The sensitivity of the situation increases alongside rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, making any simultaneous disruption at Bab al-Mandab and other energy routes an additional factor pressuring global markets.
​Oil and Markets Face a New Test
​Apprehensions were reflected in energy markets, as Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surpassed the $100 per barrel threshold amid broadening geopolitical risks threatening oil transit routes.
​The economic impact is not limited to crude prices alone; continued tension could lead to higher shipping and insurance costs, as well as the rerouting of some vessels to longer paths, raising the cost of transporting goods and putting pressure on trade through the Red Sea.
​These developments hold special significance for countries relying on maritime corridors to secure their exports and imports, making the stability of Bab al-Mandab a regional and international interest transcending the parties to the Yemeni conflict.
​Regional Attacks and Escalation Control
​In parallel with Yemeni developments, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was targeted by drones that Riyadh said originated from Iraq, causing injuries and damage before the pipeline was shut down as a precaution.
​Saudi Arabia condemned the attack but elected not to respond at this stage in response to a request from the Iraqi government, granting Baghdad an opportunity to take measures to prevent attacks launched from Iraqi territory in a move reflecting an attempt to contain the escalation and avoid expanding its regional scope.
​Baghdad condemned the attacks and launched an investigation into the circumstances, while these developments remain part of a broader regional scene where tensions in Yemen and the Red Sea intersect with energy security and navigation.
​The Regional Dimension
​The Houthi expansion toward Bab al-Mandab raises fears that the West Coast could become a more influential point regarding Red Sea security, particularly given estimates linking the group to Iran and its military and political support.
​However, certain reports regarding the nature of Iranian support for recent operations remain within the scope of estimates and information attributed to sources, and are not alone sufficient to conclusively determine the details of the Iranian role in the recent field movement.
​Conversely, the United States declared its commitment to defending navigation in the Red Sea and confronting what it described as aggression by Iran and its proxies, confirming ongoing communication with regional allies and partners regarding Yemeni developments.
​Expanding Humanitarian Crisis
​The ramifications of the escalation are not limited to military and economic aspects, as recent battles have led to a broad wave of displacement.
​The International Organization for Migration (IOM) announced the displacement of approximately 46,000 people since the resumption of fighting, having previously reported the displacement of around 20,000.
​Battles since last week have resulted in the deaths of more than 500 people, mostly fighters, according to a toll compiled from multiple sources, while displaced families face shortages of shelter and basic necessities.
​These developments illustrate the vulnerability of the humanitarian situation in Yemen, where 22.3 million people require humanitarian assistance during 2026, while the number of internally displaced persons stands at approximately 5.2 million.
​International Warnings and Unclear Political Path
​The UN Security Council discussed recent developments, with UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg calling for active engagement to prevent the country from sliding into a more dangerous conflict.
​This comes at a time when opportunities to contain the escalation appear tied to the ability of Yemeni parties to halt military expansion and return to the political path, whereas continued fighting could open new fronts and increase humanitarian and economic pressures.
​What Comes After Bab al-Mandab?
​The Yemeni scene faces several possibilities: first, government forces successfully reorganizing their ranks and launching a counter-offensive to regain lost territory; second, the Houthis consolidating their presence on the coast and islands near Bab al-Mandab; and third, the expansion of fighting to other fronts.
​However, the most sensitive factor remains the future of Bab al-Mandab. The closer military operations get to international shipping lanes, the higher the likelihood that the Yemeni crisis transforms into a regional and international security issue, carrying risks for trade, energy, and stability in the region.
​Accordingly, the battle for the West Coast appears not merely as a shift in the control map inside Yemen, but as a new test of regional and international actors' ability to prevent disruption in one of the world's most critical maritime corridors and prevent escalation from spreading beyond the Yemeni arena.
​Source: Rum News Agency