jordan pulse -
Political experts and analysts agree that the negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad have not collapsed, despite recent escalations and "setbacks." Instead, they characterize the current stage as a high-stakes pressure game where both sides are avoiding a full-scale return to war.
Key Insights from Analysts:
Senator Omar Ayasrah (Jordanian Senate):
Negotiations remain ongoing despite major disagreements. He noted that President Trump will continue to apply maximum pressure, while Iran attempts to hold its ground.
Ayasrah highlighted a leadership crisis in Tehran ("the problem of the head") following reports regarding the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which complicates decision-making.
Neither side wants war; Washington seeks a visible political victory, while Iran considers "not kneeling" as its own form of success.
Hassan Mneimneh (Middle East Institute, Washington):
Negotiations are essentially a "continuation of war" by other means.
He pointed out that the Iranian regime remains cohesive internally despite external pressure.
Iran’s ability to impact the global economy—specifically through threats to the Strait of Hormuz and regional stability—remains its strongest leverage.
Hassan Barari (Professor of International Relations):
Characterized the current situation as a "setback" rather than a total failure.
He suggested that a new deadline or grace period is more likely than an immediate direct war, as the American public mood is generally against expanding military conflicts.
The "noise" coming from Washington is viewed as a calculated pressure tool to force Iranian concessions.
Strategic Outlook:
The consensus among these experts is that if the diplomatic track were to fail completely, a new form of conflict would emerge involving a broader coalition of U.S. allies. However, for now, both parties are testing the limits of diplomacy to see who will blink first in the face of economic and military threats.