jordan pulse -

The World Bank issued a stark forecast on Tuesday, predicting that global energy prices will rise by 24% this year. This projected increase marks the highest levels seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, driven primarily by persistent geopolitical tensions and commodity market disruptions, particularly in the Middle East.

According to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, global commodity prices are expected to climb a further 16% in 2026. This trend is fueled by rising costs for energy and fertilizers, alongside unprecedented record highs for several industrial metals.

The report highlights that attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered one of the largest oil supply shocks in recent history. As the strait facilitates roughly 35% of all seaborne crude oil trade, initial supply losses were estimated at approximately 10 million barrels per day.

While prices have retreated slightly from their most recent peaks, Brent crude remains more than 50% higher than at the start of the year. The World Bank expects Brent to average $86 per barrel this year, up from $69 in 2025, based on the assumption that shipping stability will gradually return by late 2026.

The World Bank cautioned that a "worst-case scenario" involving escalated attacks on energy facilities or delayed supply recoveries could push prices as high as $115 per barrel. Such a spike would significantly exacerbate global economic risks.

The report concluded that a prolonged conflict would likely intensify inflationary pressures and further slow global growth. These effects are expected to be most severe in fragile economies that are heavily dependent on imported essential commodities.

//Petra// AF