jordan pulse -

By Saleh Al-Rashed
​"The wise person learns from the mistakes of others, while the fool learns only from their own." This golden maxim serves as a foundation for political, social, and cognitive wisdom. The political danger within states intensifies when power is concentrated in the hands of a selective, close-knit circle—a system known as an "oligarchy." In many instances, this oligarchy attempts to transfer republican governance either among its own members or directly to their children. In some Western systems, power alternates among individuals within the oligarchic structure, presenting a facade of change to the public while maintaining the core establishment.
​Certain heads of state in the Arab world have viewed hereditary succession as the safest method to consolidate oligarchic control over state institutions, effectively limiting broader political participation and sidelining civil society organizations and political parties. However, decision-makers often overlook the broader historical reality: tethering an entire state to a single, absolute decision-maker leaves the system highly vulnerable to acute crises at the first major shock. Conversely, nations that have institutionalized strong governance structures, allowed for the peaceful rotation of power, and separated the apparatus of the state from the ruler have consistently demonstrated long-term stability and resilience.
​History indicates that Arab republics that pursued dynastic succession often experienced turbulent conclusions because populations operate on the conceptual framework of a social contract. In a republican system, this contract is fundamentally built on presidential elections and the rotation of power rather than hereditary transitions. When Egypt's Hosni Mubarak attempted to pave the way for his son Gamal, public uprisings shifted the political landscape. In Syria, a rapid transitional process brought Bashar al-Assad to power following his father Hafez, leading to years of severe internal conflict.
​Prior to these events, Iraq's Saddam Hussein envisioned a future leadership role for his sons, a path that ended abruptly during the 2003 invasion. Similarly, in Libya, Muammar Gaddafi sought to position his son Saif al-Islam for governance before the political system collapsed. In Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh’s efforts to prepare his son Ahmed for the presidency were derailed by widespread protests and deep political divisions. Despite these historical precedents, the underlying message appears unheeded by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Having succeeded the late Yasser Arafat, the established institutional framework dictates that his successor should emerge from the Fatah Central Committee, rather than through attempts to position his son, Yasser, to safeguard the existing political establishment.
​There remains a fundamental distinction in the social contract between republics and monarchies, a concept vital for republican leaders to comprehend. In monarchies, the social contract is typically an implicit, historically rooted understanding between the leadership and the public. It is frequently built upon historical or religious legitimacy, where the ruling family maintains security, stability, national unity, and balances social and tribal dynamics. In return, the public offers institutional loyalty, with demands for change usually focusing on structural and developmental reforms. On the other hand, several Arab republics became heavily centered around individual presidents, single-party systems, or post-revolutionary authorities. While these systems initially presented themselves as champions of public liberty, the concentration of executive authority often led rulers to seek political longevity, thereby deviling from the core principles of the republican social contract.
​Final Word:
​An "oligarchy" defines a governance system where actual power rests with a small, dominant segment of society rather than the general populace. This elite is typically composed of powerful families, prominent business figures, influential military leaders, and high-ranking party officials. Rulers within these systems often rely entirely on this group to ensure absolute loyalty and comprehensive control over the state.
​Rum Online