jordan pulse -

By Dr. Rashid Al-Shashani
Our daily follow-up on world events usually ignores the vast majority of analysis, which reaches us merely by virtue of our research process that swiftly crosses the bridge of "nonsense, move along to be safe." Such is the case with most opinions, and even the news. However, we will pause at an idea marketed by anyone who tires themselves trying to take center stage—regardless of their political identity—based on the premise that Israel is the sole beneficiary of the region's crises and the security chaos engulfing some of its neighboring countries while threatening others.
Aside from relying on the rubble of populism whose collapse is long overdue, these commentators base their view on no solid idea, not even a naive one. We will begin with a simple question: How did Israel benefit from the division on the Palestinian side, the struggle for control inside Iraq, the division of power in Lebanon, or the security breakdown in Syria, among other issues?
Were the October attacks not one of the woes stemming from this anxiety in the neighborhood?
Did the turbulent chaos in Lebanon not leave a destructive impact inside Israel, dictated by the necessity of confronting Hezbollah?
Did Israel not bear the burden of confronting Turkey following its concerns in southern Syria?
Yet, this is not the full price Israel is actually paying. Israel envisions in its coming future an anxiety threatening its security—a threat brought about by the very instruments designed to preserve that security, chief among them normalization or entering into "Abrahamic or other" agreements, which will ultimately result in the erosion of the Israeli identity.
Israel realized late that it had taken the wrong path—one that brought it closer to the Arabs. This error did not stop at compromising its initial objectives; it also added a binding commitment to the West and the United States from which disengagement has become impossible.
Here is Israel, unable to launch a strike against any of its enemies without—at a minimum—American and sometimes Western coordination, all while having to accept a jet fighter sales deal to Turkey.
Israel came to realize that its commitment to regional agreements obligated it to adhere to structured plans for dismantling hostile factions. Worse still, it found itself subject to bargaining by Washington, which urges it to enter into agreements—Saudi Arabia being a prime example. The "Abraham Accords" will not yield their intended results; instead, they will produce the exact opposite. This era is not the era of a religious state, no matter how unifying it claims to be.
If this is the state of its strategic thinking during times of peace, how does it fare in times of war?
Israel shouldered the burden of moving to protect Syria's Druze. This burden was not limited to financial and military costs; it also handed hostile interests an opportunity to strip this card from its hands. Israel ended up in this game with an illegitimate multiplication of enemies and fronts. The danger of being surrounded by fighters—whom it wanted or believed it could eliminate through internal strife—escalated, largely due to tying its fate to Trump, who wanted to rely on "red spot" authorities to manage the security of their own lands.
Furthermore, it was burdened with maneuvering to provide support to the Kurds and Alawites in Syria, even though it has no intention of providing real support to them, or to anyone else, including the Druze. It involuntarily entered "unconsciously" into a battle of contradictions aimed at containing the threat of armed groups along its perimeter, only for the exact opposite to occur. In fact, what lies ahead will be far more severe, and Israel knows this well. Trump's floundering and his nearing political expiration date have only heightened its fear, prompting it to accelerate efforts to settle neighboring security files that have far exceeded its capacity due to their daily multiplication.
The coming chaos—which was neither ignited by Trump nor Israel, contrary to popular naive beliefs, but by the region itself and managed over a decade ago by Obama—will soon reach its peak. At that point, Israel will acquiesce to the solutions we will propose at the appropriate time.
Pay close attention as you read my words: you must discard everything that crosses your mind or that you have previously heard regarding myths about the demise of Israel, astrological calculations, holy books, illusions of a Third World War, a grand final battle, the appearance of "who knows who," and similar absurdities propagated by power circles.