jordan pulse -

Jordan and the Storm of the U.S.-Iran War: Is Geography a Weapon or a Vulnerability?

By: Ahmad Abdelbaset Rjoub

Researcher and Strategic Planner

Jordan is no longer merely an observer of the repercussions of the U.S.-Iran war. By virtue of its geography and alliances, it has become part of the regional security equation. As confrontations escalate and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, the key question is: How can Jordan protect its sovereignty while, at the same time, turning its geographic position into a source of strength and influence?

First: Fortifying Jordan and Preventing It from Becoming a Battlefield

The first challenge is security and sovereignty: protecting Jordanian territory and airspace from any potential spillover from the conflict.

This requires strengthening defensive readiness, protecting critical infrastructure, and enhancing surveillance and early-warning capabilities, alongside diplomatic efforts to preserve Jordan's relations with different parties and prevent the Kingdom from being drawn into the conflict.

The objective is not to take sides, but rather to protect Jordanian sovereignty and safeguard the Kingdom's security.

Second: Aqaba — From a Port to a Strategic Corridor

The disruption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has renewed attention to alternative land routes, and this is where Aqaba emerges as one of Jordan's most important strategic assets.

However, Jordan should not view the increase in transit activity merely as a temporary gain. Instead, it should be regarded as a practical test of the country's ability to transform itself into a regional hub for supply chains.

This requires developing Aqaba as an integrated system encompassing the port, storage facilities, road and rail transportation, and logistics services, while connecting it with Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Europe.

Railway projects are particularly important in strengthening Jordan's position as a hub connecting Aqaba with production centers and major markets.

Third: From the Strait of Hormuz to a "Digital Corridor"

The disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz also highlights the vulnerability of regional digital infrastructure.

The possibility of disruptions to submarine cables underscores the need for countries to develop secure and alternative routes.

Here, Jordan can capitalize on Aqaba's geographic location to develop a land-based digital corridor connecting the Gulf with Europe through Jordanian territory, while also developing data centers and Internet exchange points.

If Hormuz is a chokepoint for energy, Jordan can become a corridor for data.

Fourth: Energy, Food, and Water — National Security

Regional crises have demonstrated that dependence on limited supply routes can become a strategic vulnerability.

Energy, food, and water must therefore be treated as matters of national security by increasing strategic reserves, diversifying energy sources, accelerating regional interconnection projects, and expanding renewable energy.

A state that has multiple supply routes is less vulnerable to economic pressure, coercion, and supply disruptions.

Fifth: The West Bank Is Not an External Issue

If the U.S.-Iran war represents a direct threat, developments in the West Bank represent a long-term strategic threat.

Settlement expansion, attempts at annexation, and forced displacement—particularly in the Jordan Valley—directly affect Jordan's national security.

Therefore, preventing annexation and displacement should become a core component of Jordan's national strategy, through coordinated Arab and international diplomatic action and support for the resilience and steadfastness of the Palestinian people.

Sixth: A Multi-Track Jordanian Strategy

Jordan cannot determine the course of the war, but it can determine the degree to which it is exposed to the conflict and its ability to deal with its consequences.

This requires a simultaneous, multi-track strategy based on:

• Security: Protecting Jordanian airspace, territory, and critical infrastructure, while strengthening emergency preparedness and cybersecurity.

• Economy: Transforming Aqaba into a permanent regional center for trade and logistics services and developing transportation networks.

• Digital: Building secure corridors for communications and data and developing data centers.

• Energy and Food: Diversifying supply sources and increasing strategic reserves.

• Diplomacy: Maintaining balanced relations with different parties while deepening ties with the Gulf states, Iraq, Egypt, and Turkey.

Conclusion: We Should Not Wait for the War to End

The strategic mistake would be for Jordan to treat the war as a temporary crisis.

Major wars do not merely alter security maps; they also redraw the routes of trade, energy, communications, and alliances.

This is where Jordan's opportunity lies: to transform geography from a source of vulnerability into a strategic asset.

Aqaba can become a regional logistics hub, while Jordan can serve as a corridor for energy, trade, and data.

The right Jordanian equation is not to take sides in the war, but to fortify the home front, avoid entanglement, diversify partnerships, capitalize on geography, and raise the cost of targeting Jordan.

In major crises, small states do not prevail through military power alone. They prevail through their ability to transform geography into influence, location into value, and crisis into opportunity.

This is the moment for Jordan to move beyond the question, "What will the war do to us?" and ask the more important question:

"What will we do within the regional order that the war leaves behind?"

Researcher and Strategic Planner