jordan pulse -

By Dr. Rashed Al-Shashani
Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s recent statements are far from mere political sparring between conservatives and reformists.
Framed as a warning of prolonged suffering due to war and an accusation that the ruling establishment is driving the nation toward an abyss, Rouhani's call to return to the public is not just typical factional friction. Beneath the diplomatic overtures and praised military institutions lies a subtle shift: his comments, while focused on economic hardship and the futility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, directly undermine the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) efforts to counter US pressure in the region.
Signs of an Internal Shift
The timing of Rouhani’s statements is notable, coinciding with the IRGC’s destruction of an uncrewed vessel attempting to breach protected zones in the Strait of Hormuz. Amid ongoing exchanges of strikes, this suggests underlying alignment with US objectives by factions within Iran waiting for an opportunity to strike back against the ruling leadership.
Rouhani's appeal to the public does not showcase strength. If the public were leading Iran’s war effort, the outcome for the state would be dire.
His positioning is not surprising; Iran’s military posture has frequently faltered under pressure. The elimination of high-ranking leaders in single strikes highlights strategic vulnerabilities. Had military command taken a different posture, such public dissent would not have been permitted to surface.
US Strategy and the "SDF Model"
As the United States and Israel seek to mobilize the Iranian public around maritime disruptions, both nations appear focused on initiating a localized, high-impact military operation in the Strait of Hormuz.
The strategy aims to:
Form Local Ground Forces: Assemble native Iranian ground elements to launch targeted actions simultaneously with public demonstrations.
Replicate the SDF Framework: Apply a model similar to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to pit the population against the ruling leadership under a unified political umbrella.
Signal Readiness to Washington: Rouhani’s critique of traditional confrontational policies aligns with the US perspective on the futility of negotiating with the current regime, signaling his potential utility to Western powers.
Broader Regional Implications
Rouhani's rhetoric regarding the obsolescence of retaliation provides Washington with political maneuvering space. This dynamic allows the US administration to stall on other regional tracks, such as Lebanon, where diplomatic initiatives have struggled to yield results.
Contrary to popular belief, domestic election cycles are not the primary driver of this conflict. For the US and Israeli leadership, maintaining an extended conflict that draws in neighboring states remains a strategic imperative, as a quick resolution could weaken their political standing.
Populations rarely change leadership during wartime, making it essential for external powers to maintain ongoing pressure rather than launching a full-scale invasion—unless the complete downfall of the ruling regime is assured.