jordan pulse -

Jordan’s Big Five: A Strategic Diagnosis from the Economy and Water to Security and Trust

Ahmed Abdel Basit Al-Rajoub

Jordan is not facing a single crisis that can be resolved through one decision or a standalone government program. Rather, it faces five interconnected strategic issues—the “Big 5 Issues”—where economic, water, security, social, and political considerations intersect. As regional escalation accelerates and pressures increase, there is a growing need to move from managing crises after they occur to building national capacity to anticipate them. These are the “Big Five” issues that should be at the heart of Jordan’s national debate.

First: An Economy That Is Growing... But Slowly

Diagnosis: Jordan’s economic problem is not a financial or monetary collapse, but rather the difficulty of achieving high and sustainable growth capable of generating sufficient employment opportunities. International Monetary Fund estimates indicate real growth of around 2.7% in 2026, following 2.8% in 2025, while unemployment among Jordanians remains at around 21%. The paradox is that the economy maintains overall macroeconomic stability, yet it is not growing fast enough to bring about a tangible improvement in citizens’ living standards. The problem is compounded by the rising burden of public debt. In the 2026 budget, current expenditure amounts to approximately JD 11.5 billion, compared with only JD 1.6 billion in capital expenditure, while salaries, pensions, and debt servicing account for the largest share of current spending.

Strategic Solution: What is required is not merely “fiscal discipline,” but a gradual transformation of the budget into an instrument for growth. This can be achieved by improving the efficiency of capital expenditure and directing it toward technology, industry, renewable energy, and productive infrastructure, while simultaneously improving the business environment and attracting private investment. The application of performance- and results-based budgeting should also be expanded, so that the question is no longer, “How much did we spend?”, but rather, “What did we achieve in return for what we spent?” Jordan’s economy does not necessarily need less spending; it needs smarter and more productive spending.

Second: Water... The Challenge That Cannot Be Postponed

Diagnosis: Jordan is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world. Per-capita availability of renewable freshwater is approximately 61 cubic meters per year, far below the global water-poverty threshold of 500 cubic meters per person. However, the crisis is not solely about scarcity. It also concerns the cost of securing, transporting, and distributing water, network losses, attacks on water sources, and growing demand from the residential, agricultural, and industrial sectors.

Strategic Solution: The National Water Carrier Project represents one of Jordan’s most important strategic projects. It aims to desalinate 300 million cubic meters of water annually from the Red Sea and transport it through a pipeline extending approximately 450 kilometers to various parts of the Kingdom. The project has advanced in terms of financing and implementation, with a government contribution of approximately $722 million and financing of up to $1.1 billion from a consortium of Jordanian commercial banks, alongside the participation of the Social Security Investment Fund. A solar power plant is expected to provide around 30% of the project’s energy requirements.

However, the National Water Carrier cannot be a standalone solution. Water security must also involve reducing network losses, expanding the use of treated wastewater, installing smart meters, increasing rainwater harvesting, and improving water-use efficiency in agriculture. Water is not merely a service-delivery issue; it is an issue of national security, the economy, and food security.

Third: National Security in a Turbulent Region

Diagnosis: Jordan is no longer merely an indirect recipient of the consequences of regional crises. Escalation has direct repercussions for border security, trade and energy flows, tourism, transportation and insurance costs, and supply chains. The greatest risk is not necessarily the outbreak of a direct war, but rather the transmission of a regional shock into the economy through higher energy and shipping costs, declining tourism, disrupted trade, and increased pressure on public finances.

Strategic Solution: Jordan needs to move from the concept of “crisis management” to “pre-crisis preparedness.” This means maintaining safety margins in strategic reserves, diversifying energy sources, securing alternative supply chains, protecting critical infrastructure, and developing capabilities in air defense, cybersecurity, and counter-drone operations. The continuity of essential services—including energy, food, ports, and transportation—should also become an integral part of the concept of comprehensive national security.

Jordan possesses security and military institutions that enjoy high levels of public trust. The challenge, however, is to transform this trust into an integrated national preparedness system.

Fourth: Refugees... From the Burden of Hosting to Managing a New Phase

Diagnosis: For more than a decade, Jordan has borne significant pressures as a result of hosting large numbers of Syrians and other refugees. These pressures have affected host communities as well as the water, education, health, housing, and labor-market sectors. It is important to distinguish between the number of Syrians residing in the Kingdom and the number of Syrian refugees registered with the United Nations refugee agency. The latter stood at approximately 343,000 at the end of August 2026, following the return of tens of thousands to Syria.

At the same time, the international community’s capacity to finance the response has declined. The World Food Programme was forced to suspend food assistance to Syrian refugees living outside camps as of April 2026, due to funding shortages.

Strategic Solution: The refugee issue is entering a new phase centered on sustainable voluntary return, alongside support for host communities. Beginning in September 2026, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees expanded its cash-assistance program for voluntary return to include registered Syrian refugees both inside and outside camps, providing JD 70 per person, with an additional JD 210 for some of the most vulnerable families, subject to funding availability.

However, return should not become merely a matter of numbers. Its sustainability depends on conditions inside Syria and the ability to ensure a dignified life for those returning. Jordan, meanwhile, needs to redefine its relationship with donors on the basis of development and burden-sharing, rather than humanitarian response alone.

Fifth: The Trust Gap and Institutional Reform

Diagnosis: Opinion polls reveal an important paradox in the Jordanian landscape. Trust in the government stands at 49%, while overall satisfaction with government performance reaches 61%, and satisfaction with maintaining security and public order stands at 90%. By contrast, trust in the House of Representatives remains at only 27%, while satisfaction with government efforts to jobs stands at just 22%, and satisfaction with maintaining price stability at 23%.

These findings indicate that citizens trust the state and its security institutions, but they want more tangible results in terms of economic performance, employment opportunities, and the cost of living.

Strategic Solution: Institutional and political reform should be a continuous process, not a stage that ends once legislation is enacted. What is needed is to strengthen the impact of legislation, measure its expected outcomes before enactment and its actual results after implementation, involve the private sector, universities, and civil society in policymaking, and provide young people with a greater role within political parties and institutions.

Reform does not succeed merely when laws change. It succeeds when citizens feel that their voices matter and that the institutions representing them are capable of translating their demands into policies and tangible results.

Conclusion: The Battle Is Not on Five Fronts, but in Managing the Relationship Between Them

The five issues are not separate. Security pressures can increase the cost of energy and transportation; fiscal pressures constrain the state’s ability to invest; water scarcity threatens food security; the burden of hosting refugees places pressure on public services and public finances; while the trust gap affects the ability of reform to gain popular momentum.

Therefore, the real challenge is not to solve each issue separately, but to build a single strategy that connects them all.

The Jordanian equation required in the coming phase can be summarized in three principles:

Proactive action rather than reactive response; productive investment rather than unproductive spending; and partnership rather than reliance on a single source.

Jordan possesses important strengths: well-established state institutions, relative monetary and fiscal stability, security institutions that enjoy high levels of public trust, and major strategic projects that have begun moving from planning to implementation.

Yet the real challenge is the speed at which Jordan can move from awareness of risks to building the capacity to confront them.

Countries are not tested only when crises occur. They are tested before crises occur:

Have they built sufficient water and energy capacity, financial reserves, institutional trust, and productive capability?

This is precisely where Jordan’s greatest test lies: transforming preparedness from a reaction to crisis into a culture of statecraft that anticipates crisis before it arrives.

Strategic Researcher and Planner