jordan pulse -

Oil and energy expert Hashim Aql stated on Tuesday that domestic fuel prices in Jordan are likely to increase by 3 to 5 percent in the upcoming October tariff, driven by mounting pressure in international oil markets and rising import costs.
According to Aql, the anticipated price hike is expected to affect Octane 90 gasoline, Octane 95 gasoline, and diesel. The adjustment reflects an ongoing gap between global prices and local tariffs, particularly after the state treasury absorbed a portion of international price surges over recent months under a policy of gradual price adjustments.
The cumulative price differentials absorbed by the Treasury due to unreflected global increases totaled approximately 224 million Jordanian dinars through the end of August, including subsidies allocated for household gas cylinders.
Aql emphasized that managing energy price shocks requires balancing cost distributions among the government, consumers, commercial sectors, and the broader economy, alongside evaluating the fiscal capacity of public finances to absorb ongoing price differences.
In global markets, crude oil prices are currently fluctuating between $95 and $105 per barrel, with projections indicating prices could surpass $130 per barrel in the event of an expanded military conflict. Conversely, prices could retreat to $80–$85 per barrel within two months if regional tensions de-escalate and diplomatic agreements are reached, eventually stabilizing between $60 and $70 per barrel as global exports normalize and supply-demand balance is restored. Prior to recent conflicts, crude oil traded at approximately $68 per barrel.
Addressing supply security, Aql noted that Jordan maintains a strategic petroleum reserve covering domestic demand for 50 to 70 days. He advocated for reducing reliance on imported energy by expanding investments in solar energy, wind power, oil shale, and natural gas.
He highlighted a government initiative to drill 80 wells in the Risha gas field, targeting a production capacity of 420 million cubic meters of natural gas by 2029 to enhance national gas self-sufficiency.
Aql described local fuel prices as "acceptable" when evaluated against global operational and raw material costs, pointing out that diesel prices in 129 countries and gasoline prices in 69 countries remain higher than in Jordan, despite many of those nations experiencing lower average per capita incomes.
Expanding on the broader economic implications, energy and gas expert Faris Al-Hadidi noted on Tuesday that the global energy crisis has evolved beyond the immediate impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closure and crude supply disruptions into a multi-tiered crisis affecting refined products, refineries, strategic reserves, and infrastructure.
Al-Hadidi explained that the repercussions of the crisis could extend into the second quarter of 2027, even if active hostilities cease, due to the lengthy timelines required to repair refinery infrastructure in the Gulf and Russia and replenish depleted reserves.
He emphasized that current operational challenges are no longer confined to crude oil availability, but extend to refinery capacities and efficiency in producing refined derivatives, compounded by elevated shipping and maritime insurance costs that heighten broader inflationary risks across transport, services, food, and manufacturing sectors.
Al-Hadidi added that European gas storage levels have declined from 85 percent to 69 percent, posing potential supply risks in the event of severe winter conditions and prompting European nations to seek alternative gas supplies from the United States and South Korea. Regarding China, he noted that Beijing continues to secure energy imports via overland routes from Iran through the Caspian Sea and Central Asia, maintaining sufficient flows to meet current demand.
In Jordan, the Fuel Pricing Committee evaluates 30-day average global derivative prices before setting monthly retail rates. On August 31, the committee maintained retail prices for major fuel products for September at August levels despite rising global benchmarks. Under the current tariff structure, Octane 90 gasoline sells at 1,000 fils per liter, Octane 95 at 1,310 fils per liter, diesel at 850 fils per liter, kerosene at 550 fils per liter, and the standard 12.5 kg cooking gas cylinder at 7 Jordanian dinars.