jordan pulse -

​By Dr. Rashed Al-Shashani

​

​• The battle begins in the mind and ends only on the field; anything else is child's play.

• For the opponent to enter the minefield, we must detonate a distant mine.  

​It is a good military plan, but it does not work with Trump, the "real estate developer," who exhausted all means of coaxing the Chinese president and raising his level of "affection" after his recent visit to the United States. That visit was accompanied by high-decibel, low-output, and useless welcoming gestures, while the core files at the heart of the dispute between the two countries remained without any solutions, or at least temporary procedural agreements. All we see is Trump's attempt to raise the blood pressure of the cold-blooded, warmly ignoring Putin.  

​However, this step by Trump was not an isolated occurrence; it was accompanied—by virtue of necessity in coordinating the scene—by Trump's statements regarding discussing the terms of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. He implied—contrary to reality—that some progress was achieved during his meeting with Zelenskyy, and that he was discussing this with Putin. Yet these unassuring statements carry within them meanings that cannot be understood in isolation from Zelenskyy's statement regarding the United States granting Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles, after Trump kicked this license between the goalposts of "extremely wonderful" and "extremely cautious" when talking about his country's stance on granting this license.  

​This hesitation was not isolated from the "accidental moment" we established in Washington's policy as it contends with Iran in its war, and its arrows of anxiety by resuming strikes after the elections. That trick is a maneuver Trump uses to occupy and distract Iran in service of the intelligence-military coincidence—whose lag to this moment proves, beyond the failure of ground military attempts to achieve land progress, another failure in determining an operational or military timeframe to reach it.  

​Militarily, licensing Ukraine to produce "Patriot" missiles indicates that the war in Ukraine will drag on for a long time according to the realistic American vision, acquired from the setbacks of Trump, the man of "hour-by-hour solutions."  

​This necessarily means: there is no horizon for resolving the Russia-Ukraine crisis. By "horizon," we do not mean a timeframe, but rather the nature of the contextual ground rules of agreement, which signifies that the conflict is still growing without a controller to curb its spiraling above global energy disasters and supply routes.  

​The previous conclusion does not only mean the absence of this horizon regarding the war between Iran and the United States; it also reveals a priority for the latter concerning its own war that ranks above the Ukraine-Russia issue. Simultaneously, this same conclusion explicitly points to the accuracy of recurring news about the depletion of American interceptor weapon stockpiles. This implies, among other things, a danger to U.S. interests in any region protected by American defense systems.  

​The structure built on these facts dictates that Trump wants to relieve his country of the burden of supporting Ukraine and other allies by leaving them to their fate—"let them stand alone"—while keeping Russia and others under pressure—"stay away from our enemies." This pressure's weight is gradually easing with the United States' war of attrition in Iran.

​In an effort to balance both sides of the equation, the United States turned to disseminating intelligence information designed to arouse European fears of potential Russian attacks ("cyber, drones, ground intrusion, etc."). This pushed a recalculation of European rearmament at the expense of increasing support for Ukraine, especially after the fear of an agreement between Washington and Russia and turning against Europe became a worrying matter.  

​Militarily, Putin is unable to get entangled in opening fronts such as those warned about by U.S. intelligence. However, pushing toward an agreement among Ukraine, Egypt, Turkey, India, and Middle Eastern countries regarding a Black Sea blockade guarantees for the United States the isolation of Russia from the theater of events in Iran—by isolating it from these countries. This is particularly true given the lingering anxiety over a "new minefield" depicted in the U.S. intelligence report concerning Putin contemplating testing NATO's cohesion by targeting a member state.

​Trump aims to worry Russia through European precaution and drive Europe toward reducing arms to Ukraine. Consequently, Ukraine will weaken, escape European sway, and be forced to follow the path of Trump's desire. At the same time, this opens a front of collision between Europe and Russia out of fear of Russian dominance due to Ukraine's weakness and Europe's recovery through reduced support—for Ukraine—and, most importantly, the lack of alignment between Russia and Europe over Iran, which brought all of them together in the field where Trump left them alone.