jordan pulse -

​With the Israeli elections scheduled for October 27 fast approaching, eyes are turning to the calculations behind forming the next government, amidst intense competition between Benjamin Netanyahu and his rivals, and opinion polls that leave the shape of the upcoming coalition undecided.
​In the middle of this equation, Arab parties emerge as an influential factor in government-formation calculations should competing camps fail to secure a 61-seat majority out of the 120 Knesset seats.
​According to the latest poll by the Israeli channel "Kan 11," the "Yashar" party led by Eisenkot receives 22 seats compared to 20 for Likud, and 12 for the "Together" party led by Bennett, while the Joint List secures eight seats and the United Arab List receives five, giving the two Arab lists 13 seats out of the Knesset's 120 total seats.
​Multiple Options
​Political analyst specializing in Palestinian affairs, Hamada Faraneh, says that Netanyahu is seeking at the current stage to distance himself from extremist parties, allowing him to broaden his political options following the elections and avoid being forced to repeat the experience of a government reliant on far-right parties over the past four years.
​Faraneh added that Netanyahu wants to keep open the option of forming what is known as a national unity government, whether with Eisenkot or Lapid, even though both oppose him and seek his downfall—calculations that remain tied to actual results.
​He considered that Arab parties also possess more than one option following the elections, as they could stand alongside one of the camps or enter into coalition arrangements with it, depending on the results and the political terms presented.
​Faraneh cites previous experiences, noting that the Joint List provided parliamentary cover for Yitzhak Rabin's government between 1992 and 1996, while the United Arab List participated in the government of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid between 2021 and 2022.
​Faraneh states that the inability to form an Israeli coalition without Arab support might prompt certain parties to review their declared positions and seek understandings with one or both lists—particularly the United Arab List headed by Mansour Abbas, who consistently declares his willingness to align with any Israeli list that offers political, living, and demand-based gains for Palestinians.
​This equation means that Arab weight is not solely connected to the number of seats, but also to the ability of both lists to dictate terms of participation or support, and the degree to which Israeli parties are willing to make commitments regarding budgets, services, and combating crime and discrimination. However, differing positions between the two lists regarding government participation could prevent the adoption of a unified Arab strategy.
​Obstructing Netanyahu
​Political analyst Bilal Al-Adayleh believes Arab parties can obstruct Netanyahu's efforts to form a government if they retain impactful parliamentary representation and treat election results as an entry point to negotiate the demands of the Arab community.
​Al-Adayleh noted in remarks to Erem News that the importance of these parties is not limited to the number of seats, but encompasses their ability to influence coalition calculations when Israeli camps fail to secure an independent majority.
​According to Al-Adayleh, Eisenkot's moves toward heads of Arab and Bedouin local authorities reflect an attempt to build communication channels bypassing party leaderships, reaching voters whose priorities focus on personal safety, combating crime, services, and budgets. Furthermore, putting forward plans to bolster policing and law enforcement, establishing a governmental framework to combat crime, and developing education and services could open the door for discussion regarding the demands of the Arab community.
​However, Al-Adayleh sees that these moves do not mean Arab votes will automatically shift to Eisenkot, nor do they guarantee an agreement between him and Arab parties. He stresses that the benchmark will be the extent to which any government is prepared to fulfill tangible demands, and the ability of Arab lawmakers to translate their parliamentary weight into practical commitments rather than settling for electoral promises.
​Source: Rum News Agency